No More Gold to Smith

Alex Smith, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft,
will most likely be looking for a new job in 2013.
Courtesy: HuffPost

By: Michael Rivera
Sports Editor

All season since he’s started, since he got a chance to play, I have been an avid Colin Kaepernick hater. Yes, I am now going to tell you why my deep seeded hatred has turned into an atypical respect for the second year quarterback out of Nevada. Why? Statistically, the should have kept playing Alex Smith. Yet, if you look at if from a different angle, you’ll see that it was inevitable for Smith to leave. Here is the story of how numbers could have predicted the future that is to come.

Looking at Smith, you could tell from an early standpoint of why an organization would want to get rid of him. Based on information provided by ESPN.com, the Niners signed him to a six year, 49.5 million dollar contract with 24 million guaranteed. That means for the past five years, Smith has been averaging about $8 million and change (with incentives); 24.5 million to be paid out in the final two years of the contract.

Here’s the best part: Smith only played in 54 games (out of 80 games not including playoffs), averaging 54.9% completion rate, 1,879.8 passing yards, 7.6 TDs and 10.6 interceptions in his tenure from 2005-2010. He went through six different offensive coordinators over his first six years of play, while struggling great with recurring injuries.

At the end of 2008, the Niners restructured Smith’s deal to a two year contract, paying out around $4 million a year. This was nearly half of what he was making per year beforehand. Yet, it did make Smith a little more competitive, eventually winning the starting job back from Shaun Hill.

The biggest success didn’t come Jim Harbaugh took over the Niners that the Smith showed signs of being a reliable quarterback. He went from zero to hero in the matter of 16 games, completing 61.3% of his throws, throwing 3,144 yards, 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. This ended up being great for Smith, who looked to have a great year going into free agency, right? Wrong.

Smith was left out to dry and San Francisco was making a big grab for Peyton Manning. Smith’s contract was up and he had free choice to look around. When the Niners lost Manning to Denver, they had no choice but to stick with Smith, who more leverage from the first time they redid his contract.

So in May 2012, they redid Smith’s contract to include a $3 million dollar signing bonus, with $5 million on his schedule in 2012. If they keep him all year, he is then guaranteed $1 million, getting $9 million if he plays for the Niners in 2013. And here enters Kaepernick as the savior.

Kaepernick was the 32nd overall pick of the draft in 2011. I’m guessing this was to light a fire underneath 2005 1st overall pick Alex Smith, who had been playing poorly up until Kaepernick was drafted. Kaepernick signed a four year deal, worth $5.2 million, which $3.8 is guaranteed.

You can put good money down that after what he’s done in five regular season starts and one playoff victory that San Francisco is ending their expensive rendezvous with Smith. If they cut or trade Smith, the only take a cap hit of $1 million versus the $10 million they would have paid him in 2013. Plus, Smith is 28 years old and Kaepernick is 25. Smith’s career looks to be sketchy where Kaepernick’s looks to be promising.

Even so, how do you cheat on the quarterback who still holds the third highest quarterback rating in the NFL? How do you justify it? If you watched the the NFC Divisional Playoff Game against Green Bay, Kaepernick sealed Smith’s fate single-handedly. He passed the ball well, going for 231 yards, 2 touchdown and one interception (was a pick six, but he bounced back quickly).

He showed how dangerous he is as a running threat, putting down 181 yards on 16 carries, followed by 2 touchdowns. This is the most yards a quarterback has ever rushed for in NFL postseason history. He is an unbelieveable freak of nature. He is by far the best passing/running threat in this league, complimented by his amazing team around him.

But here’s the even more lucrative part behind it. He’s the sinister conspiracy I have come up with behind the whole reason Kaepernick has now just inherited the starting job in San Francisco: you’re investment paid for itself. Smith screwed that organization for so long, that there is no way they could justify paying him more and more money to keep doing the same thing he’s done most of his career: wasting their time. He’s injury-prone, inconsistent, and unmalleable.

If you had to learn six different offenses over your career as a starter, the likelihood of you being successful is minimal and you haven’t been able to develop. With Harbaugh and Kaepernick in their second seasons, they will be able to build a chemistry that Smith will not have. You can’t blame Smith, since he’s had to divorce so many coaches over the years.

All-in-all, San Francisco doesn’t really want Smith anymore and he knows it by now. He will have an advantage going into free agency with teams like the Chiefs, Jaguars and the Cardinals: he has played so many different offenses, he could fit into any that is willing to stick with him.